America's Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War
America's Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War

America’s Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War

Taliban Between the Past and the Present
Taliban Between the Past and the Present

In April 1992, the Russian-backed Afghan communist government led by Muhammad Najibullah was no longer able to sustain itself against the Afghan Mujahideen. On April 24, 1992, the Peshawar Accords were announced to form a coalition government in Afghanistan. The agreement stipulated that the interim Afghan government (which called itself the “Islamic State of Afghanistan”) would begin service on April 28, 1992. Due to the competing forces competing for full power.

The international community in the form of the United Nations and most of the Afghan political parties decided to form a legitimate national government, to replace the communist rule, through an elitist compromise between the various resistance parties.while the leaders of the external Afghan parties were meeting in Peshawar, the military situation around Kabul was tense with respect to the internal leaders. While Massoud supported the Peshawar process to form a broad coalition government that includes all parties On April 24, 1992, leaders in Peshawar approved and signed the Peshawar Agreement to create the post-communist Islamic State of Afghanistan.

The Afghan Taliban movement arose on the principle of applying Islamic law according to Sunni Islam. This movement officially began in 1994. All those who joined this organization are from the same Afghan society, and most of them are from the east or the south, their first unified goal was to drive the Soviets out of the region, and they fought a war for 10 years, and the movement’s official control was then over Kabul in 1996, after that Taliban continued to rule Afghanistan until 2001, after the events of September 11th. After the dispersal of the Taliban movement, the movement was organized to confront the US and NATO intervention in Afghan territory.

At that time, there was clear support for the Taliban from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, because they were also afraid of American intervention against them, and they fought Pakistan because, at that time, America was planning to invade Pakistani Balochistan at the end of the nineties, Saudi Arabia and the UAE withdrew their recognition of the Taliban movement due to American pressure.

What Are the Features of the Expected Political System in Afghanistan After 20 Years?

America's Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War
America’s Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War

Everything that is happening now is in the context of maneuvers, the movement has suffered throughout history, as it spent years in the mountains between hit and run, knowing that strictness inactions did not work for it. Now, it will not seriously seek for comprehensive democracy, and there will be no Western liberal democracy, of course, because this contradicts the Taliban’s goals by rejecting the presence of Western intervention, but it supports the existence of flexibility and neighboring international alliances.

The new comprehensive government will run on the basis of Islamic law and this is consistent with the custom formation of the majority of the Afghan people, but the flexibility in the new government is to include different segments of society from preserving the previous ministerial structures and the right to hold administrative positions for women, as stated by the movement explicitly. It is likely that the Taliban movement will abolish the 2004 constitution and establish an Islamic emirate. The most reasonable candidate for the Taliban is Hebatullah Akhundzadeh, the 60-year-old current leader of the “Taliban” movement. He was chosen as the leader of the movement, succeeding its former leader, Akhtar Mansour, who was killed in a US air strike on the Afghan-Pakistan border in 2016.

America’s exit after years is a defeat, as it lost economically and psychologically and did not reach its goals by imposing a rule that would change the societal structure and did not develop the society. This is why the Taliban movement is more aware of the mentality of its people, but it will lose in the future if it limits the rights of the people, especially the rights of women.

The Taliban’s Meetings with the West and Negotiations Are Not New nor Strange at the height of the Taliban’s power President Ronald Reagan met the Afghan Mujahideen in 1983. Negotiations intensified under the name of the Afghan peace process in 2018, between the Taliban movement opposing the Afghan government and the American forces. Most of those negotiations were held in the Qatari capital, Doha. Qatar has quietly led mediation efforts complicated by the violence in Afghanistan and the coronavirus crisis that has prolonged those talks.

In the beginning, there were discussions about the exchange of prisoners between the Afghan government and the Taliban movement, until the negotiations between the United States and the Taliban turned directly.

Qatar invited the Taliban to open a political office in Doha in 2013 and helped broker a February agreement to withdraw forces between Washington and the movement, and this led to tensions after the Taliban raised its flag in its office, sparking anger in Kabul.

The Position of Countries on the Taliban’s Clinging to Power in Afghanistan

America's Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War
America’s Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War

The attitudes of all countries towards the Taliban have changed, and this is due to two important things. The first is that these countries guarantee their security and stability, and the other reason is their rejection of complete Western control over Afghanistan.

Turkey’s Position On Afghanistan

Turkey’s position in Central Asia has made its role important for what is happening in Afghanistan. That is why Turkey seeks to perpetuate its role and work in Afghanistan, where it achieves many interests and gains related to the internal Afghan dynamics, and the Turkish segments of the Tajiks and Turkmen on the other hand, ensuring trade and economic relations, and the work of Turkish companies, And its geographical and geopolitical connection to the republics, as well as the impact of this on Turkey’s relations with the United States and the opportunity that I hinted for the first time to improve them through the Kabul airport issue.

Regarding the Turkish role in protecting Kabul Airport, he explained that the Turkish government does not intend to ensure the security of the airport in Kabul, but rather that they will provide important services in the field of air navigation, communications and safety, and there will be several soldiers inside the airport to protect themselves, but the real security inside and outside the airport will be guaranteed by the Afghan government.

What About Russia?

Russia quickly took the initiative to hold a quick meeting with Taliban leaders, and the Russian ambassador in Kabul met with the Taliban. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Russia will not rush to recognize the Taliban government, and this will depend on the Taliban’s behavior in the coming days. Russia justifies that there is no threat from the Taliban to the region, but the danger will be if There was a political vacuum in Afghanistan.

China’s Reaction

The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement stating that it maintains contact and communication with the Afghan Taliban movement, and this is confirmed by the Taliban leaders. Afghanistan because the stability of the region ensures the development of the Chinese economy for China, this represents a guarantee of three foundations, the first of which is security, political and economic.

Next Scenario

America's Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War
America’s Exit from Afghanistan and Indications of the Beginning of a New Sectarian War

The US Pentagon has stated that it has worked to evacuate 42,000 Afghans and wants to evacuate the rest, but the National Security Adviser said that access to Kabul airport is very sensitive, so coordination with the Taliban must be made about air transport operations. The Taliban gave a deadline for all foreign forces to complete the evacuation operations until the end of August.

This defeat, some Israeli political analysts saw as similar to the defeat and withdrawal of Israeli forces in Lebanon in 2006, and others resemble the exit of the Americans from Afghanistan as their exit from Vietnam.

Most important of all, what are the undeclared goals of both the American and Afghan sides? Is there a plan to use the sectarian card to ignite a new religious war in the region in order to make the rest of the Western powers spread fake democracy again according to their standards?

America’s withdrawal from the region, even after the Doha agreement, does not mean that the withdrawal will not interfere at all later on. America will seek to find a close ally to it in Central Asia to make for it an extended bridge to complete its interests in the region. Also, America considered the project of supporting ISIS futile for it, so it wants to redirect its consideration The movement has strength and an older history.

Research by Jeelan Aburub